Executive Summary

Q3 2021 revenue was $1.010M, down 21% year over year as Todos transitioned from equipment distribution to higher‑margin testing through its Provista CLIA/CAP lab; quarterly gross profit was $0.401M and operating loss narrowed materially versus Q3 2020 .
EPS was a loss of $0.01 per share in Q3 2021 (10‑Q), while the press release referenced a $0.02 loss; the 10‑Q is authoritative and reflects a lower per‑share loss due to a higher weighted average share count .
Management highlighted completed automation at Provista (capacity >20k PCR tests/day) and expects a COVID testing surge in Q4 2021, plus interim Tollovir Phase 2 data in Q4 2021; Tollovid/Tollovid Daily gained Amazon and Alibaba authorizations in Q3 .
Liquidity remains tight (cash $0.166M vs shareholders’ deficit $(10.499)M) with significant convertible debt ($17.017M), and a major customer dispute prompted a $3.465M payment demand letter on Nov 15, 2021, elevating execution and financing risks .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Provista lab automation completed; capacity scaled to 20,000+ PCR tests/day, 5,000 variant tests/day, 2,500+ respiratory panels/day and 1,500+ neutralizing antibody tests/day, positioning for higher‑margin revenue capture .
Commercial progress in consumer channels: Amazon and Alibaba authorized Tollovid/Tollovid Daily, expanding distribution footprint ahead of expected winter demand .
Operating loss improved sharply YoY (Q3 2021 $(2.497)M vs $(10.246)M in Q3 2020) on lower R&D and sales/marketing expenses versus prior year, despite revenue decline .

What Went Wrong

Liquidity constraints persisted (cash $0.166M as of 9/30/21), with shareholders’ deficit of $(10.499)M and elevated financing costs (YTD financing expenses $17.360M), highlighting dependence on external funding .
Revenue fell 21% YoY in Q3 2021 to $1.010M as the company shifted away from equipment sales; near‑term revenue pressure from the transition remains evident .
Customer concentration risk materialized: a significant customer’s contract expired; Todos sent a $3.465M demand letter seeking payment and equipment return, underscoring receivables risk and revenue uncertainty .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2020	Q1 2021	Q2 2021	Q3 2021
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	1,284	5,031	1,732	1,010
Gross Profit ($USD Thousands)	(33)	1,796	819	401
Operating Income ($USD Thousands)	(10,246)	(1,837)	(1,662)	(2,497)
Net Income ($USD Thousands)	(18,035)	(17,557)	3,390	(10,379)
EPS ($USD)	(0.07)	(0.04)	0.01	(0.01)
Gross Margin %	(2.6%)	35.7%	47.3%	39.7%
Net Income Margin %	(1404%)	(349%)	195.7%	(1027%)

Notes: Percentages are calculated from cited revenue and profit figures.

Revenue by Geography ($USD Thousands)	Q3 2020	Q3 2021
United States	1,284	1,010

KPIs and Balance Sheet Items	Q3 2021
Provista PCR capacity (tests/day)	20,000+
Variant tests/day	5,000
RPP tests/day	2,500+
Neutralizing antibody tests/day	1,500+
Tollovir Phase 2 enrollment (as of 9/30/21)	22 patients
Tollovid channels	Amazon, Alibaba authorized
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Thousands)	166
Trade Receivables ($USD Thousands)	2,072
Inventory ($USD Thousands)	1,904
Convertible Bridge Loans (Non‑current, $USD Thousands)	17,017

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	Q4 2021	None provided	Management expects a surge in COVID testing and significant revenue increase at Provista beginning Q4 2021 and into 2022 (qualitative)	N/A
Gross Margin	Q4 2021	None provided	Expect higher gross margins as mix shifts to Provista testing vs distribution (qualitative)	N/A
Product/Clinical	Q4 2021	None provided	Interim Tollovir Phase 2 data expected Q4 2021	N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q3 2021 earnings call transcript was found; themes reflect press release and 10‑Q disclosures.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q‑2 and Q‑1)	Current Period (Q3 2021)	Trend
COVID testing strategy	Q1: Revenue driven by COVID product distribution; bottleneck solutions via automation; supply chain commentary . Q2: Acquired Provista; ramping automation; targeting higher‑volume testing; cPass neutralizing antibody path .	Provista automation complete; capacity scaled; pivot to higher‑margin lab testing; expect demand surge Q4 .	Shift from distribution to in‑house testing accelerating.
Tollovir (3CL protease inhibitor)	Q2: Phase 2 trial launched in Israel; planned India expansion .	Observational 2020 study showed zero deaths in treated group vs 5 in control; Phase 2 enrollment at 22; interim Q4 data planned .	Development progressing; upcoming data a key catalyst.
Tollovid/Tollovid Daily (supplements)	Q2: New FDA certificate for 5‑day regimen; product positioning .	Authorized on Amazon and Alibaba to broaden consumer reach .	Channel expansion supports consumer revenue.
Videssa breast test	Q2: Provista acquisition and IP; Europe patent allowance for TBIA AI .	U.S. relaunch prep; analytical studies Q1–Q3 2022; clinical studies thereafter .	Execution roadmap defined.
Financing/uplisting	Q1: Going concern; reliance on bridge loans/equity; uplisting ambitions . Q2: CFO noted balance sheet improvements and uplisting positioning .	Continued reliance on convertible notes; shareholders’ deficit; management reiterates uplisting strategy .	Financing costs elevated; equity strategy ongoing.
Customer concentration/AR risk	Q1: Potential dispute over unpaid invoices with significant client .	Contract expired; demand letter issued for $3.465M and equipment return .	Risk materialized; collections critical.

Management Commentary

“With the automation at Provista complete, we expect to capture a greater percentage of our future business from our own testing lab rather than through distribution… We expect this to result in increases in revenue and gross margins overall and on a per test basis.” — Daniel Hirsch, CFO .
“The acquisition of Provista gives us the ability to establish a commercial ready test addressing a multi‑billion market opportunity… the launch of our Phase 2 trial for Tollovir as a COVID antiviral candidate is a potential game changer.” — Gerald E. Commissiong, CEO (Q2 release) .

Q&A Highlights

No Q3 2021 earnings call transcript or Q&A session was published; guidance clarifications and tone were conveyed via the press release and 10‑Q MD&A .

Estimates Context

S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus estimates were unavailable for TOMDF due to missing mapping; therefore, no comparison vs Street estimates is provided. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global, but were not available for this ticker.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near‑term revenue mix shift: Provista lab enables higher‑margin testing; management expects Q4 demand surge (seasonal COVID) and margin uplift as testing displaces distribution .
Clinical catalyst: Interim Tollovir Phase 2 data expected in Q4 2021; prior observational data showed favorable outcomes (zero deaths in treated group) supporting potential value creation if randomized data are positive .
Consumer channel expansion: Tollovid/Tollovid Daily authorizations on Amazon and Alibaba diversify revenue streams ahead of winter seasonality .
Liquidity and leverage watch‑items: Cash $0.166M, shareholders’ deficit $(10.499)M, and significant convertible bridge loans ($17.017M) demand continued access to financing; elevated financing expenses pressured bottom line .
Receivables risk: The $3.465M demand letter to a major customer underscores collections risk; resolution could materially impact cash and reported revenue/AR .
EPS comparability: Rely on 10‑Q for EPS ($0.01) loss in Q3 2021; press release cited ($0.02), reflecting earlier share count assumptions — treat 10‑Q as definitive .
Uplisting aspirations remain contingent on operational execution, financing stability, and strengthening internal controls that management acknowledges require remediation .

TODOS MEDICAL LTD. (TOMDF)·Q3 2021 Earnings Summary